883 Days: Can You Hold Your Breath?

The Lebanon war has been distracting to Americans since we seem to feel that it has little to do with us directly. Some see it as part of the buildup to the Iran war, to eliminate Hezbollah as a theatre in that war since policymakers believe Iran controls Hezbollah and would send them into action in response to an American or Israeli attack upon Tehran. That seems too simplistic to me. More likely would be to test conventional "bunker buster" bombs on fortifications supposedly designed by Iranians. It would be interesting to know what Israeli and American analysts have concluded about the bombing of Lebanon since it will no doubt influence the use/non-use of nuclear weapons against Iran. One of the oddities of the new studies area - 4th Generation Warfare - is that it concentrates on asymmetry of weak, non-state adversaries and mostly avoids mentioning the Powell Doctrine (overwhelming force) that is an integral part of this 4GW scenario. News reports quote a General stating explicitly that if (when) the Iran war arrives the US has the capability to deliver guided munitions to as many as 10,000 targets within a mere few hours. Gone are the days of conventional war, with the slow buildup of forces before attack. Not that these "boots on the ground" won't be used; rather, it's start with a knockout punch to, minimally, stun the opponent and render him defenseless for the following attacks. The real danger of this new air power approach is that only those in on it -the secretive Junta- know what's coming down the pike: thermonuclear war between the first sip of coffee and buttering the toast. This requires us to read the tea leaves, to try to predict the future, so that we can act beforehand to forestall catastrophe.

The Cheney-Bush-Rumsfeld regime came to office with a vision for the future. They are true believers and this is their last and best chance to effect their designs. Rumsfeld is old; Cheney has a heart even older; Bush is a moron. With the demise of the Soviet Union and advances in weaponry and targeting capability (for the first time the US believes it really has a first strike capacity against Russia) the wishes and dreams of the imperialistic, capitalistic ruling class sees nothing to hold it back from dominating the world. These people want to spread the costs around but are not really fearful of any country anywhere on the planet. The only thing that stands between them and their wish-fulfillment is potential opposition in the homeland. This bodes ill for our future. Unlike the days of Viet Nam there is not a large, vehement anti-war movement nor is there much opposition within the ruling elite itself. This is obvious in the positions of elected officials. There is much distaste for the crude, crass and aggressive behavior of the B-C Junta but not over substance. Capitalism, even with the opening of markets, including labor markets, worldwide, is caught in a consumption crisis and the long life of capitalist hegemony through credit is on a precipice. Retraction and realignment are on the agenda. This spells Depression and the costs of oil concomitant with expansion of the Mideast war will hasten the crisis' onset. Being smart enough to plan so many scenarios, no doubt policymakers have factored this in as well. Contracts to KBR for design of detention camps and unlimited spying on the home populace are all part of this scenario.

Given the non-involvement of Iraq or Iran in 9/11 it is obvious that the "war on terror" has a purpose other than protecting us from terrorists. With the recent arrests in the UK the Bushies have been quick to try connecting Al Qaeda with those arrests (something the British have not done) just as they did with the non-existent Saddam-9/11 link. The purpose of terrorism is to terrify and our being terrified is precisely what the B-C Junta wants. A terrified population docilely follows their leader to safety. Of course, the US actions in the Middle East have not produced safety nor was such a result intended. But only a few million of US citizens will benefit personally from this expansion of domination so our Dear Leader has to lie to us to have us go along for the thrills of death and destruction, all on widescreen TV. A stern Leader with a frightened citizenry is the ticket to hegemony. If the B-C Junta intends to attack Iran as so many believe, only two groups can nix the project: the Congress and the military General Staff. But of the many hundreds of generals defections are likely to be few and they will feel duty-bound and legally bound to keep their mouths shut even should they resign. Some may have nightmares about Viet Nam or even Nuremberg and don't want to see themselves in the dock charged with war crimes. And the Congress (there are some very principled, courageous members) is mostly a bunch of self-serving wusses, more interested in playing court politics than in being true leaders. Two years and five months, 883 days, left in (legal) office. Anyone noted any Bush retreat? Anyone think the Decider is going to twiddle his thumbs for all that time?

Many, such as Mister Kristol Balls, the Newt, B and C themselves, keep harping on the Islamo-Fascism ploy. These people must be supernaturalists since four years ago Saddam equalled Hitler and now both Nasrallah and Ahmadinejad have become possessed with Adolf's spirit. One problem with bringing up Munich, as many do, is that when Chamberlain cowed before Hitler it was over the seizure of Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. The only players seizing territory these days are the United States and Israel. Black is white; ignorance is knowledge; war is peace. (Sigh). Fascism was coined by Mussolini and defined as the Corporate State (this is a hint). By evoking the accoutrements (fasces) of Imperial Rome, Mussolini, a journalist by trade, hoped to win the people to his side. Aggressive foreign policy, repression of the home populace, the demonization of enemies, the drive for profits, the new nationalism is the "clash of civilizations." These are the props of the new fascism and they don't reside in Tehran or Baghdad or Lebanon but in New York and Washington and London. Accepting this does not require liking or befriending Iran or Hamas or Hezbollah; the enemy of our enemy is not necessarily our friend. But by demonizing and warring against these countries and groups and peoples (such as Muslims) we are creating new enemies and creating conditions where populations will hide and protect extremists since "we" are tarring all of them with the same brush.

The future looks grim: expansion of the war, worldwide recession, widespread social disorder within the US as the economy shrinks, severe repression. If and when real change comes in our world it will start in the US. Only the American people, in the large, have the ability to change the fundamentals. But as with most historical change, we're likely to act only as a last resort and only when conditions become intolerable. A lot of people in the world will suffer and die before we get a clue and turn off the TV. Ignorance is costly, stupidity even more so. But it's hard to be optimistic when so many are willing to jump on the jingoistic bandwagon. And if things get really bad, Bush may declare an emergency and remain in power indefinitely. Perhaps that would sufficiently anger Americans and motivate them to, for the first time, make ours a government of the people, by the people, for the people. We are living in days beyond satire, which means thinking through plausible implications of ideological positions. But there is no longer anything implicit; the word has been made flesh.