Recent news-talk is of a bottoming-out and rebound in the
economy. It's not quite clear upon what this optimistic reporting is
based. Foreclosures are growing; unemployment is growing; debts are
growing; interest rates for consumers are not falling; investment in
production is not growing. I'd guess the same ignorant folks who
thought that financial innovation would carry us to unbounded heights,
and who never saw the crash coming, are still scurrying around and
garnering notice. The doom-and-gloom folks who forecast the crash were
avoided as party poopers before the fall and they are no more popular
today.
For 35 years the productive 80% of the population has either treaded
water or sunk below the surface. Economic growth didn't appear in
their yards and fewer of them even have yards today. The wealthy have
always controlled the economy and they use it for their own enrichment
tapping the egotism of the political folks, whose lust for power is
unbounded, to set the laws to enhance concentration of wealth and
funnel taxpayer money to their wallets. Even laws that supposedly
benefit the plebs were skirted. The "Homeland Investment Act" cut
corporate tax rates from 35% to 5.25% for foreign profits returned to
the US and invested in production here. A study cited by Floyd Norris
in the New York Times showed how that didn't work out and how basically new investments
in home production never happened; instead 92% of $299 billion went to
shareholders. One lack of clarity in the article was the fuzziness in
explaining how the corporations managed to evade the law but not break
it. In any event, it's just another example of how the economy
and the governing laws are designed to move money from my pocket, and
yours, and put it in the fat cats' wallets.
Wild speculation in the 1920s led to the famous crash and the lack of
solvent consumers ushered in the famous depression. New Deal policies
took the edge off some misery yet unemployment and poverty remained
high and in 1938 the wealthy led an assault against the New Deal and
another recession ensued. It took WW II to work up to full employment
and after that war organized labor was strong and kept workers' share
of national income historically high. Then came the wild inflation of
the late 60s with a bloated Pentagon and foreign war being paid for
with funny money. Along then came Volker and Reagan and the wealthy's
assault against workers got very heavy-handed and it's been downhill
for ordinary folk ever since. The credit card industry boomed and
workers have been taking on debt to the extent that most Americans are
technically insolvent. Productivity is high so most workers aren't
needed, at least not in highly paid, high value-added work; we can't
afford to buy stuff we don't even make. The Fed and Treasury, along
with their partners in other countries, are working overtime to stave
off a deflationary spiral; their success, if it comes, may usher in
hyperinflation and that as well would probably end in deflation. After
all, we've been living in a deflationary era for a long time.
As more than one observer has written, the Federal Reserve isn't
federal, has no reserves and isn't even a bank. Created in 1913, the
Fed is owned and operated by commerical banks and they act in those
banks' interests. If we benefit it is a side-effect, not a goal. So,
that the Fed and Teasury have indebted the country, the government,
the taxpayers to an endless future of wealth transfers should surprise
noone. The Congress outsourced money creation to private interests and
financial innovation has been a seemingly sophisticated game of
Whack-a-Mole. I'm acquainted with someone who likes to buy lottery
scratch-off tickets. Sometimes he wins; one day he won
$500. Regardless, after winning or losing he keeps buying tickets
until he has no money left. Literally. I could bank on it, if I were a
bank. But this guy isn't a bank so he can only play as long as he has
greenbacks in his pocket. Would that the banks were in the same
position.
The banks create money ex nihilo every time they issue a loan. Credit
creates inflation since interest demands you pay back more than you
borrowed. For over 40 years official policy has been mild
inflation. The experts don't call it inflation; of course, they also
call 4% unemployment full employment. But the rules in recent years
have been quite lax and money creation got out of hand. Now when the
bills can't be paid we, the taxpayers, through our government, are
promising to pay back all these creditor-magicians. Money effectively
is a claim upon a society's resources and these claims are piling up
in the ultra-rich's vaults. Once again, public health care is on the
agenda and the propagandists are hard at work to kill it since it
might harm private insurers. Their attitude is that the public masses
must cater to the needs of the wealthy few. Well, we've been suckers
for a very long time. It seems that Medicare and Medicaid are very
efficient, with overhead of only 4% while private insurers have 25%
overhead. That's where the profit lies. I never understood how voters
fell for the scam that a public utility, a water department for
example, could provide better service at a lower cost. Public
utilities are defined by being something that affects everyone such
that the public itself, through their government, should control them
for their benefit. Money and credit are public utilities and should
not be controlled by private interests.
Financial innovation gave us asset inflation, usurious interest rates, great
volatility, and now collapse. In some ways it developed because it
became harder to make money through productive investment: there's
more money to be made in lending to a developer than in being a
developer. Of course this isn't long-term true. Money is a measure of
value and value is a creation of human work. Most "modern" economists
try to deny this but if it weren't true there could be neither
inflation nor deflation. Money can be skimmed in transaction costs
(20% fee to an investment banker) or profits before assets resettle at
their "real" value, which brings in the musical chairs metaphor. But a
return to value is unavoidable and that's why asset prices have been
falling and that's why putting workers' pension funds in stocks is
insane. Gambling is not a plan for the future. Uncontrolled money
creation gave us AOL-TimeWarner, a disastrous merger but very
profitable for a few. Recall when the Tokyo Palace Gardens had a
higher market value than the state of California (supposedly the
world's 7th largest economy). When something sounds crazy, it is.
Again, the problem seems to be that productive capacity and
productivity have grown beyond the ability of consumers to buy. So
financiers decided to make money from money, a weird kind of alchemy
where you park a pile of money, go off to recite your incantations
and when you return the pile has grown. Amazing! To quote Marx from
Volume 3, Chapter 30, of Capital: "The ultimate reason for all crises
always remains the poverty and restricted consumption of the masses,
in the face of the drive of capitalist production to develop the
productive forces as if only the absolute consumption capacity of
society set a limit to them."
Some current Marxists think that the microelectronics revolution has
so changed the nature of production that some solutions, such a
Stalinist socialism, are of limited utility. Others, such as David
Harvey think that in a de-industrializing place such as the US that
the state-finance nexus now dominates thus sidelining
workers. Professor Harvey is a learned man and the others do their
homework as well. But somehow I don't buy it. Marx wrote of
"fictitious capital", an appelation that was created by classical
economists to name funny money, and the havoc it could
wreak. Personally, I see Marx as the culmination of classical
political economy. Our 20th and 21st century economists want to deny
the inescapable validity of classical political economy, making wealth
creation virtually an act of will. This belief has given us the
financial disasters of the past 2 or 3 decades. I doubt the law of
value has been eliminated by technological developments. The way I see
it is simply that History moves slowly, and at its own pace, not that
of the theorists. Marx noted that there is no end of wants and wants
provide the motivation for action and Voila! Wealth creation! Stuff!!
The USSR had its problems, particularly in heavy investment that it
was loath to destroy as jobs might go along with it. But I've spent
the past 20 years reading up on the USSR and it seems that this was a
technical problem, not a foundational one. The USSR didn't collapse;
it was destroyed from the top. What was amazing is that there wasn't
revolt there when the people's property was stolen from them and given
to speculators. And that points not to problems of economic design but
to ideology of the masses. In this regard I think the most amazing
book I've read in the past, well, forever, is A Journey in the Back
Country by Frederick Law Olmstead. A journey taken through the South
in 1856. This book described to a large extent the world I lived in in
the late '70s and '80s. To discover that the people's views, their
ideology, was the same in 1986 as it was in 1856 and that a
contemporaneous writer had an explicit handle on those views astounded
me. How coul this be possible? Sure, people still go to Church but I'd
guess few believe in the same way their progenitors did.
I'd say the problems we face are political and conceptual. And it's
hard for folks to get a grasp on events when they're lied to and
propagandized from before sunrise to after sunset. More people were
arrested in St. Paul at last summer's Republican convention than the
600 reported arrests in Iran thus far. Our House did not vote a
resolution condemning the police in St. Paul, and media talk was of
anarchists, not people practicing democracy. The drive for more war,
as it expands in Afghanistan and Pakistan and probably to Iran, and
who knows, maybe Korea. Our leaders are aggressive, greedy and very
dangerous. In fact, the USSR is the only example I can think of when
power conceded without a fight. No one in the West ever explained how
the "evil empire" gave up peacebly, how Lucifer became Gabriel. Do you
think the evil bastards destroying our society will give up so easily?